SA v WI CWC Warm Up

Scorecard here

10:40 - SA 13/0 (2)

The pitch doesn’t look very good. It was lower scoring last time out as well. The South African batting line-up isn’t all that dynamic, yet the runs line is at 328!

10:46 - SA 21/0 (3.3)

Some serious variable bounce here. Two short balls in a row, on went over the keepers head, the other bounced before the keeper got to it!

This runs line is insane, market massively overestimating SA. They’ll only make 330+ on a belter, and this isn’t a belter.

10:53 - SA 21/0 (3.3)

I won’t be watching for much longer, going to take my chances here and add one more to my position:

14:00 - SA 55/0 (8.2)

This match has now been rained off for a while. Since the number of overs have been reduced ALL BETS ABOVE ARE VOID.

I didn’t actually know that was the rule, will bear that in mind in the future.

15:58 - SA 95/0 (12.4)

Earlier, after the rain first started I checked the Google “weather in Bristol” timeline and it said not much rain.

I also looked at the radar, and it seemed like the rain wouldn’t last long. But I have an edge on the weather. Everybody looks at the radar, but my rule for betting on the radar is this:

If the amount of rain on the radar at a location keeps increasing, the rain won’t stop.

I don’t mean the linear movement of the rain from one side of the country to the other. I mean when, say, there is a gap in the rain at a certain point, but that gap is filling in with more rain. The same rule holds true in the other direction.

That’s why I’m going to bet on a non-completed match. I was already getting close to betting on non-completed while play was on and the odds were above 3.0, but they came off before I was ready to bet. After making sure though, here’s my bet:

16:10 - Match Abandoned

So my usual theory with the rain radar has worked again. I would have bet more money if I’d been in time to get a price of 3 or more.

Just looking back at my innings runs bets, it looks as though I was probably wrong on the pitch although we’ll never know. Maybe going straight in with £300 was a mistake, and I should have looked to add in phases as the state of the pitch became clearer. I could have been thrown by a couple of extreme examples of bad bounce, even though bounce wasn’t so bad the rest of the time.

Here’s the summary of this match: